Pragmatic Capital Management · Pragmatic Portfolio Update
Q2 2026

Part I  ·  Business by Business

The Pragmatic Portfolio

Powerful Businesses Monetizing Massive Megatrends

21

Businesses

5

Activity Clusters

Q1 ’26

Reporting Window

2026+

Road Ahead

Each of these twenty-one businesses is pursuing an opportunity so large it will take years to seize. That is what makes the megatrend a megatrend. Size is the given; execution is the question. The work in front of each company is to reach more of the consumers it can serve, convert them into customers, and add so much value that what it sells becomes irreplaceable, and that is what we study, quarter by quarter.

Cluster I  ·  5 Businesses

Building the AI Substrate

Five businesses physically constructing the chips, foundries, racks, software, and cloud capacity the AI economy runs on top of. The activity is build. The megatrend is a multi-trillion-dollar buildout of compute infrastructure unfolding across this decade.

NVIDIA NVDA

MegatrendThe build-out of AI factories. These are giant, power-hungry data centers whose only product is intelligence.

Every kind of AI buyer now runs more of its AI on NVIDIA. That includes the largest cloud companies, the leading AI labs, governments, and the makers of self-driving cars and robots. Q1 sales reached $82 billion, up 85% in a year. That is the third straight quarter of accelerating (faster and faster) growth.

  • Q1 revenue reached $82 billion, up 85% from a year earlier. Data-center sales alone rose 92% to $75 billion.
  • Amazon’s cloud (AWS) will add more than 1 million NVIDIA Blackwell and Rubin chips, starting this year. These are the current and next AI processors.
  • Vera is NVIDIA’s first processor built for AI agents (software that does tasks on its own). It opens a brand-new $200 billion market the company has never sold into. Every major hyperscaler (giant cloud company) and system maker has signed up to deploy it.
  • Renting a prior-generation H100 chip now costs 20% more than at the start of the year. The older A100 rents for nearly 15% more. Older chips rent for more, not less.

This quarter, NVIDIA began to split its sales by buyer type. The split shows the five or six giant cloud companies now account for only about half of its data-center revenue: $38 billion of $75 billion. NVIDIA no longer leans on a handful of clouds. The other half comes from AI start-ups, enterprises, factories, and governments across nearly 40 countries. That half grows faster: up 31% from the prior quarter, against the clouds’ 12%. And the chips NVIDIA shipped years ago keep renting for more, not less. H100 rental prices are up 20% this year alone. That is pricing power that holds long after each chip ships.

Advanced Micro Devices AMD

MegatrendThe same AI infrastructure boom. But here it is a two-horse race, and the world’s hyperscalers (the giant cloud companies) want to keep it that way.

Demand for AI chips has outrun what NVIDIA alone can supply. So every cloud company, server maker, and AI lab now orders from AMD as the credible second source. Q1 brought in Meta, which committed to deploy up to six gigawatts of AMD AI chips.

  • Q1 revenue grew 38% year-over-year to $10.3 billion; data-center revenue hit a record $5.8 billion, up 57%
  • Meta committed to deploy up to six gigawatts of AMD Instinct AI chips across several chip generations, including a custom accelerator co-designed on AMD’s MI450 architecture
  • AMD began sampling its MI450 AI chips to lead customers. It stayed on track to ship Helios, its pre-built AI server rack, in the second half of 2026
  • AMD raised its 2030 forecast for the server-processor market (the standard CPUs every server runs on) past $120 billion. That is more than double the $60 billion it projected last November. It also guided server CPU revenue up more than 70% year-over-year in Q2

Underneath the AI-chip headlines, AMD’s server-processor business is the quiet compounding story. It just posted its fourth straight record quarter, up more than 50% year-over-year. Cloud and enterprise sales each grew more than 50%. EPYC-powered cloud options rose nearly 50%, to more than 1,600. This means every AI buildout now budgets for AMD twice: once for the AI accelerator (the chip that does the AI work), and again for the standard server CPUs that direct it. And as AI agents multiply, they create more of the ordinary computing work that CPUs handle. AMD says the number of its CPUs per AI chip is climbing from as low as one-in-eight toward one-to-one. So every gigawatt of new AI capacity becomes fresh EPYC demand that outlives any single chip deal.

Taiwan Semiconductor TSM

MegatrendThe world cannot build advanced AI without one factory network in Taiwan. It is the chosen manufacturer for almost every leading-edge chip on earth.

Every designer of the most advanced chips on earth (NVIDIA, AMD, Apple, Broadcom, Qualcomm) sends its designs to TSMC. No other factory can match TSMC’s manufacturing process. In Q1, demand for its three-year-old N3 process ran far ahead of supply. So TSMC broke its own rule and began building three new factories to make it.

  • Q1 revenue reached $35.9 billion, up 6.4% from the prior quarter. Gross margin (the profit left after manufacturing costs) rose to 66.2%
  • High-performance computing (the data-center chips that run AI) grew 20% from the prior quarter, to 61% of sales
  • TSMC raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to growth above 30% in dollar terms. AI demand keeps outrunning supply into 2027
  • TSMC is breaking its own rule against expanding a mature process. It is building three new 3-nanometer factories, in Taiwan, Arizona, and Japan, to meet AI demand. The first is due in early 2027

Underneath the headline, TSMC is spending to chase demand it cannot fill. Capital spending moves to the high end of its $52–56 billion range this year. Spending over the past three years totaled $101 billion. The next three years will run significantly higher. This means TSMC sells factory time that customers reserve years in advance, to buyers with nowhere else to go. Even a three-year-old process stays sold out through 2027. A new factory takes two to three years to build, with no shortcuts. So every dollar of that record spending locks in capacity only TSMC can supply. That is pricing power that compounds, because there is no second source at the leading edge.

CoreWeave CRWV

MegatrendRenting AI supercomputers by the hour. A new kind of cloud company exists solely to host the most demanding AI workloads on earth.

The largest AI labs and cloud companies are signing longer contracts to rent CoreWeave’s AI computing capacity. Q1 brought record bookings: more than $40 billion of new commitments in a single quarter. That lifts signed future revenue toward $100 billion.

  • Q1 revenue reached $2.1 billion, up 112% from a year earlier and 32% from the prior quarter
  • CoreWeave signed more than $40 billion of new customer commitments in Q1, its largest bookings quarter ever. That lifted contracted future revenue (signed deals not yet delivered) to $99.4 billion, nearly 4x a year earlier
  • Meta signed a $21 billion agreement, announced in early April. Anthropic came on as a new customer to build and run its Claude AI models
  • CoreWeave passed 1 gigawatt of active, running power. It now holds more than 3.5 gigawatts under contract, up more than 400 megawatts in the quarter
  • Rental prices rose across every chip generation, from the older A100 and H100 to the newest Blackwell. CoreWeave remains sold out of its 2026 capacity

Underneath the record bookings, CoreWeave’s customer base is widening fast. The AI-native labs and foundation-model makers that once dominated its order book are now less than 30% of the backlog. Ten separate customers have each committed at least $1 billion. This means CoreWeave’s revenue no longer leans on a handful of AI labs. New enterprise buyers now form whole new billion-dollar verticals, each on its own contract and schedule. They range from trading firms like Jane Street, which added $6 billion of capacity in Q1, to robotics and drug-research companies. And the same customers keep buying more of the platform: more than 90% now use at least two CoreWeave products, and 75% use three or more. Rental prices rose across every chip generation this quarter. That pricing power holds long after each contract is signed.

Oracle ORCL

MegatrendA 50-year-old database company is reinventing itself as the cloud landlord of choice for AI. It serves customers who want their existing business data to be the fuel for AI.

AI labs train their models on Oracle. Large enterprises replace SAP and Workday with Oracle Fusion. Oracle’s existing database customers now run Oracle, plus its new AI database and AI data platform, inside whichever cloud they already use. Q1 drove contracted future revenue to $638 billion, up 363% in a single year.

  • Contracted future revenue reached $638 billion, up 363% year over year
  • Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93% year over year. The quarter added $67 billion of new AI infrastructure contracts. Most of that is prepaid or runs on hardware the customer buys
  • Oracle delivered more than 1.2 gigawatts of data-center capacity to customers over the year. The next single quarter alone approaches 1 gigawatt, nearly the prior four quarters combined
  • Multicloud (Oracle’s database running inside AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud) revenue grew 404% year over year. Bookings grew 325%
  • 1,000 AI agents now ship inside Fusion (Oracle’s enterprise software). Q1 wins included Vodafone and Claro, which is automating service for its 30 million subscribers. Oracle also won a U.S. government-wide award for Fusion HCM

Underneath the headline demand, customers increasingly buy the AI chips themselves and prepay Oracle to run them. Such contracts now total $75 billion, at the same profit margin as the rest. This means Oracle earns full margin on infrastructure it never had to finance. The customer supplies the capital. Oracle supplies the part that is genuinely hard: it designs, secures, and operates the cluster every day. When 35,000 chips came up for renewal across 59 separate customers, Oracle resold the freed capacity inside the same quarter. That held chip utilization (the share of chips in paid use) at 97.5%. The scarce asset is not the chip; it is the ability to run it. That keeps the pricing power with Oracle long after each contract is signed.

Cluster II  ·  6 Businesses

Putting AI to Work Inside the Enterprise

Six businesses weaving AI into how large organizations actually operate: analyzing their data, watching their software run, designing their products, building their applications. The activity is operationalize. The megatrend is the migration of AI from demo to deployment inside the institutions that run the economy.

Palantir PLTR

MegatrendBig institutions race to embed AI in their core operations. They run it on their own messy data, in production.

The largest institutions on earth run more of their critical operations on Palantir’s software. They span defense, manufacturing, healthcare, banking, energy, and government. In Q1, the company’s U.S. revenue growth passed 100% for the first time since it went public.

  • Q1 revenue grew 85% year over year to $1.6 billion. That is the fastest growth rate in Palantir’s history as a public company.
  • U.S. commercial revenue grew 133% year over year to $595 million. One account moved to a government contract; without that move, growth would have been 143%.
  • Existing customers spent 50% more than a year earlier. That is net dollar retention of 150%, up 11 percentage points from Q4.
  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture awarded a contract of up to $300 million. It covers securing farmland and shielding farm programs from fraud and foreign influence.
  • ShipOS (Palantir’s software for the Navy’s shipbuilding base) cut one supplier’s bill-of-materials approval from 200 hours to 15 seconds.

Underneath the headline, Palantir still employs about 70 salespeople. Only 7 of them really sell. Yet the company’s biggest problem is demand it cannot meet. This means customers pull the growth in; a sales force does not push it out. An institution runs a real problem through the software. Then it signs a large contract on its own timeline. And once a customer builds on the Ontology (Palantir’s layer that lets AI act on a company’s own data), it stays and spends more. Existing customers expand what they run on Palantir year after year. At Thomas Cavanagh Construction, 97% of employees now use the software every day. So every other tool that company runs has to justify why it is still there.

Snowflake SNOW

MegatrendCompanies want one trusted, governed home for all of their data so AI agents can act on it.

Large enterprises run more work through Snowflake. They run analytics queries there, and now AI agents act on the same data. In Q1, revenue growth accelerated to 34%. That was the fastest sequential dollar gain in company history.

  • Q1 product revenue grew 34% to $1.3 billion. Growth was 30% the prior quarter and 26% a year ago. The sequential dollar gain was the strongest Snowflake has ever posted.
  • Cortex Code, or CoCo (Snowflake’s AI coding assistant), went live on February 5. It is already in use across more than 7,100 accounts. That is the fastest adoption of any new product in company history.
  • Snowflake Intelligence lets business users query company data in plain English and act on it. Accounts using it more than doubled from the prior quarter.
  • Snowflake signed a new five-year, $6 billion agreement with AWS. That is more than double the prior contract. Snowflake also passed $7 billion in lifetime sales through the AWS marketplace.
  • OpenAI expanded its partnership on the platform to $200 million. Snowflake added 616 net-new customers in Q1, up 38% and a company record.

Underneath the headline, existing customers spend more. Net revenue retention (how much last year’s customers spend this year) climbed to 126%. At the same time, Snowflake signed its most net-new customers ever. It raised its full-year growth outlook from 27% to 31%. This means Snowflake’s growth now comes from two directions at once. New customers keep arriving, and existing accounts keep spending more. That spend spans analytics and a fast-growing layer of AI agent work. CoCo and Snowflake Intelligence run on the governed data customers have already loaded and configured. Every agent a customer builds inside Snowflake pulls still more work onto the core platform. So each new AI workload makes leaving harder and the next one cheaper to add.

Datadog DDOG

MegatrendSoftware keeps getting more complex. Someone has to watch it run. That matters even more now that AI agents write and ship the code.

Engineering teams, security teams, and AI coding agents all use Datadog more. Q1 pushed quarterly revenue past $1 billion for the first time, and growth accelerated to 32%.

  • Q1 revenue rose 32% to $1.0 billion. That is the company’s first quarter ever above $1 billion. Annual recurring revenue (the yearly value of signed subscriptions) crossed $4 billion.
  • Datadog landed two of the world’s largest AI research teams. One deal pays seven figures a year; the other pays eight figures. They hired Datadog to watch their model-training runs. A year ago, that market was not yet a market for Datadog.
  • New-customer bookings set an all-time record and more than doubled from a year ago. The average size of a new deal also more than doubled.
  • Among Datadog’s AI-native customers, 22 firms now pay more than $1 million a year and 5 pay more than $10 million a year.
  • 6,500 customers now send AI data to Datadog. They are 20% of all customers but 80% of revenue. Calls to Datadog’s MCP server (the connector that hands AI coding agents live production data) quadrupled quarter over quarter.

Underneath the headline, the acceleration is broad. Revenue from Datadog’s non-AI customers grew in the mid-20s percent, up from 19% a year ago. At the same moment, a genuinely new market opened for the first time: monitoring AI model training. This means Datadog is not riding a single AI wave. Its oldest business is speeding up just as a brand-new one appears. Customers also keep folding scattered tools onto the platform. 20% now run eight or more Datadog products, up from 13% a year ago. Each added product deepens the switching cost. So usage compounds whether humans or AI agents generate it.

Figma FIG

MegatrendAI makes building software cheap. So design becomes the thing that sets one product apart from another. The value moves to taste, judgment, and system-level specification (deciding exactly how the whole product should work).

Designers, product managers, engineers, and marketers now create more of their work inside Figma. So do the frontier AI labs themselves. In Q1, growth accelerated to 46%. And for the first time, Figma put a price on the AI these users consume.

  • Q1 revenue grew 46% to $333 million. That is the second straight quarter of faster growth, up from 40% in Q4 and 38% the quarter before
  • Existing customers spent 39% more than a year earlier. That is net dollar retention of 139%, Figma’s highest rate in over two years
  • The paid customer base grew to roughly 690,000, up 54% from about 450,000 a year earlier
  • One of the world’s largest hyperscalers (a giant cloud-computing company) folded its scattered Figma use into a single agreement of over 35,000 paid seats. It is one of the largest deals in Figma’s history
  • Figma began charging for AI usage on March 18. Pro teams that bought AI credit add-ons already spend over 3x more per year than teams that did not

Underneath the headline, that 46% growth arrived almost entirely before Figma charged a cent for AI. Credit billing switched on only on March 18, near the end of the quarter. Figma has bolted a second meter onto a business that was already accelerating on seats alone. Every prompt an engineer or product manager runs now rings a register that was silent a quarter ago. And the buyers keep widening past designers. At one large European industrial customer, engineers now outnumber designers on the platform. Customers using Figma’s MCP (the connector that lets AI agents read and write design files directly) added full seats about 70% faster than customers who don’t. So the tools built to automate design work pull more paid seats onto Figma, not fewer.

Salesforce CRM

MegatrendCompanies are turning their customer relationships into a workforce of AI agents. Those agents sell, serve, and market on top of the company’s own Salesforce data.

Tens of thousands of businesses are turning their Salesforce systems into agentic enterprises (companies run partly by AI agents). They span every industry, from banks and hospitals to the U.S. Air Force and the AI labs themselves. Their agents act on their own customer data across sales, service, and marketing. In Q1, Agentforce passed $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, barely a year after launch.

  • Q1 revenue reached $11.1 billion, up 13% year over year. Agentforce annual recurring revenue passed $1 billion. Total AI and data ARR reached $3.4 billion.
  • Salesforce processed 28.6 trillion tokens (the text units AI models read and write), up 152% from the prior quarter. It converted them into 3.8 billion agentic work units (individual tasks its agents completed), up 111%.
  • Salesforce closed 98 deals worth more than $1 million in new annual contract value. One was a new $72 million agreement with the U.S. Air Force. Half of all Agentforce and Data 360 bookings came from existing customers expanding what they already run.
  • Agentforce went live on Salesforce’s own help site 15 months ago. Since then, it has handled 4 million customer inquiries on its own, double the volume human agents handle. Agentforce sales worked 220,000 leads on its own and generated $42 million in new sales pipeline (potential deals not yet closed).
  • Slack (the workplace messaging tool Salesforce owns) drove nearly half of the quarter’s million-dollar wins, up 80% year over year. Its agent activity grew nearly 350% quarter over quarter. OpenAI and Anthropic both run their businesses on it.

Underneath the headline, the same customers keep buying more. Half of Agentforce and Data 360 bookings came from existing accounts. Salesforce’s ten heaviest agent users increased their total spend 1.5x over the past year. This means Salesforce no longer just sells seats for people to log into. It sells agents that do the work. The more work those agents do, the more the customer pays. That usage shows up as tokens and completed tasks before it shows up as revenue. The agents act on the customer’s own sales, service, and marketing data. That data already sits inside Salesforce, and Data 360 now unifies it. So the cost and risk of moving that work anywhere else rises with every agent a customer switches on.

HubSpot HUBS

MegatrendSmall and mid-sized businesses now get enterprise-grade AI agents inside the software they already use. That software runs their marketing, sales, and service. So a small team can operate like a big one.

More small and mid-sized businesses run their whole go-to-market (marketing, sales, and service) on HubSpot. Now they turn its Breeze AI agents loose to do the work. Q1 was the quarter those agents became a real, paid growth lever. Credit consumption rose 67% in a single quarter.

  • Total customer count reached nearly 300,000 worldwide, up 16% year over year. HubSpot added 10,800 net new customers in Q1
  • Total credits consumed (the metered fuel customers buy to run HubSpot’s AI agents) grew 67% quarter over quarter. Customer Agent (the AI support rep) led with 53% of all credits used
  • Nearly 14,000 customers have switched on Prospecting Agent (which finds and reaches out to sales leads), up 33% in the quarter. Jotform, an online form builder used by over 35 million people, now buys 625,000 credits a month to run it fully automated
  • Customer Agent’s resolution rate (the share of support tickets it closes with no human involved) climbed to 70%, up from 20% a year ago. Some customers exceed 90%
  • Deals over $120,000 in annual recurring revenue grew 64% year over year. Customers with 500 or more seats grew over 450% year over year. Bigger companies are consolidating onto HubSpot

Underneath the headline, HubSpot rewired how it charges for AI. In April, Customer Agent moved to billing per resolved support ticket. Prospecting Agent moved to billing per qualified lead. Each comes with a 28-day free trial. Customers pay only when the agent delivers a result. This means the AI agents earn on top of the subscriptions, priced by the work they do rather than by the seat. One customer pushed a single agent from 100,000 to 300,000 credits a month because it could measure the outcomes. That spend climbs as trust in the agent grows. And every agent, HubSpot’s own or a third party’s, runs on the same shared ‘growth context’ (the accumulated knowledge of how nearly 300,000 businesses find customers and close deals). So the more agents run on HubSpot, the more valuable that context becomes. And the harder the platform is to leave.

Cluster III  ·  4 Businesses

Rebuilding Discovery, Decision, and Purchase

Four businesses rebuilding the layer between people and the things they buy. The activity is rewire how billions of consumers find, evaluate, and transact, a layer being rewritten in real time as AI becomes the new intermediary between intent and inventory.

Shopify SHOP

MegatrendShopping is moving into AI chat windows. The rails underneath must be rebuilt to handle it.

Merchants of every size run more commerce through Shopify, from new entrepreneurs to General Motors and L’Oréal. AI shopping assistants like ChatGPT and Gemini do the same. In Q1, merchant sales passed $100 billion for a second straight quarter. Revenue grew at the fastest rate in over four years.

  • Q1 revenue grew 34% to $3.2 billion, on $101 billion of merchant sales. That is the second straight quarter above $100 billion, and Shopify’s fastest revenue growth in over four years
  • New signings include the luxury house LVMH, Mulberry, and the iconic Lands’ End. Orvis, the outdoor brand founded in 1856, is moving its whole business to Shopify. It gets a full unified commerce setup: online store, physical stores, and payments in one system
  • Orders from AI shopping searches grew nearly 13x year-over-year. AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores grew 8x. Buyers who arrive from those searches are new to the merchant at nearly twice the rate of ordinary search
  • Shopify’s catalog (the clean product data AI assistants read to find and price items) now holds over 1 billion products. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Stripe all joined UCP, the open commerce standard Shopify co-developed with Google
  • Shopify Payments processed $67 billion of merchant sales in Q1, up 41% and now 67% of the total. Shop Pay (Shopify’s one-tap checkout) processed $35 billion, up 59%

Underneath the headline, the numbers that matter most are the ones that pull merchants deeper in. Weekly active shops using Sidekick (Shopify’s in-store AI that now builds apps and automations for merchants) grew 385% in a year. Almost 90% of Q1 revenue came from merchants on the platform for more than a year. This means Shopify’s growth is not new sign-ups replacing merchants who leave. Each year’s cohort of merchants stacks on top of the last and keeps growing. The revenue base compounds instead of resetting. Shopify also built an open commerce standard with Google, and Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Stripe have now joined it. The very companies that could have routed around Shopify are instead building on the rails Shopify controls. And every sale, on a storefront or inside a chat window, still earns Shopify a monthly fee plus a slice of the payment.

Pinterest PINS

MegatrendVisual, AI-assisted shopping is replacing keyword search as the way people decide what to buy.

Pinterest’s 631 million users now ask the platform more commercial questions. Advertisers trust Pinterest’s AI to do more of their targeting. Q1 pushed both further. Revenue growth returned to 18% and passed $1 billion, as spending outside the tariff-hit retail giants accelerated.

  • Q1 revenue grew 18% to $1.0 billion, back above $1 billion for a third straight quarter. Growth excluding its largest retailers accelerated from Q4.
  • Monthly users hit a record 631 million, up 11%, and all are signed in. That is a 10th straight quarter of double-digit user growth. Gen Z is now over half the base and its fastest-growing cohort (age group).
  • Pinterest handles more than 80 billion searches a month. About half show commercial intent (the user wants to buy something). By ChatGPT’s own data, only 2% of its prompts are commercial.
  • Performance+ is Pinterest’s AI ad-automation suite. It needs half the inputs to launch a campaign. It now carries roughly 30% of lower-funnel ad revenue (ads meant to produce a purchase now). Advertisers who adopt it grew that spend nearly twice as fast as those who don’t.
  • Mejuri, a fine-jewelry brand, ran a four-week head-to-head test. Its Performance+ campaign delivered a 46% lift in return on ad spend and 62% more conversions (completed customer actions). Mejuri then adopted it more broadly.

Underneath the 18% headline, the growth came less from Pinterest’s largest retailers. It came more from a widening base of mid-market, SMB (small-business), and international advertisers. Pinterest now sends advertisers five times the clicks it did three years ago. Its ad revenue does not yet reflect that traffic. This means Pinterest’s revenue is diversifying off the handful of big retailers that softened last year. It is moving onto dozens of smaller, faster-growing buyers, each on its own schedule. The gap between the shopping Pinterest drives and the credit it collects is stored-up revenue. Pinterest’s AI bidding now plugs straight into advertisers’ own measurement systems; one lifetime-value pilot cited a 15% to 20% gain. So Pinterest starts getting paid for demand it was already creating.

AppLovin APP

MegatrendAI is shifting power in advertising. Human marketers are losing it to automated bidding machines. Sales floors are losing it to neural networks (software that learns from data).

Mobile-game studios let AppLovin’s AI handle more of their ad targeting. Now e-commerce brands do the same. They sign themselves up through a self-service portal. Q1 cleared the way to open that portal to the world in June, after 14 years closed.

  • Q1 revenue rose 59% to $1.8 billion. The adjusted EBITDA margin (profit before certain costs, as a share of revenue) hit 85%, a new high. Revenue also grew 11% over Q4. Ad businesses almost never post a first-quarter gain on the holiday quarter
  • The consumer vertical serves e-commerce and other non-gaming advertisers, and the product is only 1.5 years old. It set a record spend month in April, above any peak month in Q4. March ran about 25% ahead of January
  • In June, AppLovin opens Axon (its AI ad engine) to the public after 14 years as a closed platform. Advertisers worldwide can sign up and run campaigns without talking to a salesperson
  • Each new advertiser is expected to spend well over $70,000 a year. Signing 100,000 in the first year would bring roughly $7 billion in ad spend
  • AppLovin’s generative-AI creative tools are now live for all customers. One is an interactive-page generator that auto-builds the tappable middle of an ad. AI video generation is in testing and days from a broad rollout

Look under the headline. The metric the company watches most closely is growth from advertisers it already has. That is what accelerated. A model upgrade a couple of weeks before the call drove it and made April a record month. This means AppLovin’s growth comes mostly from existing advertisers spending more as its AI improves, not from a sales push. Each model release lifts returns. Advertisers respond by adding budget. That is a virtuous cycle. AppLovin also wins new advertisers the same way its customers buy ads: it runs performance ads for its own platform, and those ads break even inside 30 days. So opening to the public in June pours buyers into a machine whose cost structure barely moves. Two markets now feed one auction: gaming and a faster-growing consumer vertical. Every new advertiser adds data that sharpens the models for both. And once a customer clears 30 days of spend, it almost never churns (stops spending).

The Trade Desk TTD

MegatrendThe open internet is now the largest single advertising market on earth. It spans connected TV, podcasts, news, sports, and retail media. It is split across thousands of publishers, and it grows every quarter.

From Bayer and IKEA to Nestle and Cheerios, the world’s largest brands trust Trade Desk’s AI to handle more of their ad-buying. They lock themselves in with multi-year contracts. Q1 brought the biggest month for those signings in the company’s history, with 45 new deals in March alone.

  • Q1 revenue reached $689 million, up 12% year over year. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 30%.
  • March was the biggest month on record for Joint Business Plans (multi-year advertiser commitments), with 45 signed in March alone. The total JBP count grew 55% year over year. New deal spend excluding renewals grew 40%.
  • A top global pharmaceutical advertiser had shifted budget to Amazon. It returned in Q1 and signed a 2026 JBP that will lift its spend on Trade Desk 114% year over year.
  • Audience Unlimited (Trade Desk’s new automated audience-building product) delivered strong results for one travel brand against a control group: 30% lower ad prices, 38% lower data costs, 75% more efficient cost-per-action, and a 2.7x jump in conversions.
  • Retailers in Trade Desk’s data marketplace now represent more than 80% of sales from top U.S. retailers. Amazon covers under 15% of U.S. retail spend. New sponsored-listing tie-ins came from Dollar General, plus a deal to power Lyft’s ad business.

Underneath the headline, Q1 revenue growth slowed to 12% even as multi-year contract signings hit a record. The softness sits in tariff-hit consumer-packaged-goods and auto brands, not in the platform itself. This means the slowdown is cyclical: a macro squeeze on two advertiser categories. The structural asset compounds underneath it. Brands keep signing longer commitments. They keep their own data on a platform that never asks them to surrender it. Trade Desk owns no ad inventory. So its AI can weigh 20 million ad opportunities every second and pick the 300 or 400 worth buying, without steering a brand toward media it profits from. That is why a top pharmaceutical advertiser abandoned Amazon’s cheaper rates and returned in Q1 at 114% higher spend.

Cluster IV  ·  3 Businesses

Modernizing the Activities of Everyday Life

Three businesses replacing legacy ways of doing daily things (learning a language, ordering from a local merchant, running a restaurant) with modern, AI-enabled platforms. The activity is replace what came before. The megatrend is the long migration of ordinary life from analog and fragmented onto integrated software stacks.

Duolingo DUOL

MegatrendAI tutors are about to make personalized learning available to a billion people for the price of a coffee.

Duolingo’s language learners run more AI-tutored conversations every day. Q1 shows it plainly: words spoken per user in the AI video-call tutor more than doubled over the past year.

  • Daily active users grew 21% year-over-year in Q1. Full-year guidance calls for roughly 20% daily-user growth.
  • Duolingo published 20,500 course units in Q1 alone. That is more than 10 times its per-quarter pace two years ago. It is about as much as it shipped in all of last year.
  • Courses now run all the way to professional proficiency across all 9 of Duolingo’s most-learned languages. That is B2 on the CEFR scale (the level needed to work in a language).
  • Words spoken per user in the AI video-call tutor more than doubled over the past year. Duolingo now tests that feature with new subscribers on the cheaper Super tier. Those subscribers confirm they will pay more for it.
  • Q1 adjusted operating profit (EBITDA) reached $83 million, about 29% of revenue. Duolingo entered Q2 with over $1 billion in cash and no debt. It expects over $350 million in free cash flow this year.

Underneath the guidance, Duolingo is making a deliberate trade. Only about 12% of its monthly users pay today. At Spotify, the figure is close to 50%. So Duolingo trades near-term price for a bigger base of engaged learners. This means Duolingo chooses reach over squeezing today’s users. Free trials now run one month instead of seven days. The video-call tutor sits on the cheaper Super tier. Both moves put the AI tutor in front of far more people without slowing daily-user growth. Those learners already speak twice as many words to the tutor as a year ago, and they say they will pay more for it. Each new habit becomes pricing power the company can collect later, once the paying base is larger.

DoorDash DASH

MegatrendLocal commerce (restaurants, groceries, retail) is roughly a decade behind digital media in moving onto on-demand delivery platforms.

Consumers now run more of their weekly errands through DoorDash: food, groceries, retail, pharmacy. In Q1, monthly active users hit an all-time high. DoorDash drove most of the industry’s growth.

  • Monthly active users (people who order at least once a month) reached an all-time high in Q1. DoorDash drove the majority of the entire delivery industry’s user growth
  • Subscription (DashPass and its overseas equivalents) had a record quarter across all three brands (DoorDash, Deliveroo, Wolt). Member sign-ups and retention both accelerated year over year
  • DoorDash is now the volume share leader in US grocery delivery. It wins about 1 in every 2 customers who order grocery delivery for the first time
  • Deliveroo, acquired last year, is growing at its fastest rate in four years. It reaccelerated in each month DoorDash has owned it. The European unit remains on track to add roughly $200 million of EBITDA in 2026
  • Roughly two-thirds of DoorDash’s software code is now written by AI. AI agents already cut the cost of onboarding new merchants and building their catalogs

Underneath the headline, the growth is not one lever. Several levers turn at once: more users, higher order frequency, record subscription, and share gains. All of it happens across three brands and two continents in the same quarter. This means DoorDash’s growth no longer rides on any single market or category. When winter storms clip US order value by about 1%, record membership and a reaccelerating Europe keep the platform compounding. The year’s biggest project folds DoorDash, Wolt, and Deliveroo onto one global tech stack. A feature built once ships to all three. An improvement learned in London or Los Angeles spreads across the whole network. No one rebuilds it three separate times.

Toast TOST

MegatrendIndependent restaurants are leaving a scattered pile of old tools: separate cash registers, payment processors, payroll vendors, and marketing apps. They are moving onto one software platform that runs the whole business.

Restaurants of every size run more of their operation on Toast. That now includes chains like Applebee’s and Firehouse Subs. In Q1, Toast’s combined cut of every dollar spent through the platform crossed 1% for the first time.

  • Toast added 7,000 net locations in Q1. It ended the quarter with 171,000 live locations, up 22% from a year ago.
  • Recurring gross profit (software and payment processing combined) grew 27%. GAAP operating margin crossed 20% for the first time, reaching 21%, or $110 million.
  • Toast’s total take of every dollar spent through the platform, software plus payments, crossed 1% for the first time. It reached 103 basis points on $51 billion of payment volume, up 22% year over year.
  • Toast IQ (Toast’s AI assistant for operators) now has 40,000 weekly active locations. Its first AI agent, a marketing agent inside the new Toast IQ Grow, lifted pilot restaurants’ sales an average of 8%.
  • Q1 marquee wins: The Alinea Group (Alinea, Next, The Aviary), 500-unit pizza chain Hungry Howie’s, and Papa Murphy’s. Toast also launched a Drive-Thru product that opens 140,000 new locations.

Underneath the location count, Toast is turning 14 years of restaurant data into work it can charge for. The Toast IQ Grow marketing agent now does the outsourced marketing job itself. AI also runs more of Toast’s own operation: 40% of support interactions are resolved by AI, coding velocity is up over 60%, and SaaS gross margin crossed 80% for the first time, up nearly 3 points. This means Toast no longer only sells software. It is starting to sell the labor restaurants used to outsource: marketing now, and soon bookkeeping, payroll, and inventory. It uses data only Toast holds, which raises what each location pays. And Toast’s take of every dollar now exceeds 1 cent. So 7,000 new locations a quarter and a rising take rate compound the same revenue line, while AI pulls cost out from underneath.

Cluster V  ·  3 Businesses

The Reset at the Cooler Door and the Drive-Thru Lane

Three businesses capturing generational consumer-behavior shifts in food and drink as category winners. The activity is take share where the category is being rebuilt. The megatrend is not AI; it is younger consumers fundamentally rewriting what they eat, drink, and trust, faster than incumbents can respond.

Dutch Bros BROS

MegatrendA new generation of drive-thru beverage chains is stealing daily-coffee occasions from the legacy national chain. They win with speed, customization, and a high-energy brand.

Dutch Bros’ 15 million loyalty members pull into the drive-thru more often. They now order breakfast alongside their daily drink. Q1 same-shop sales jumped 8.3%, the seventh straight quarter of transaction growth. That result was strong enough to raise the full-year outlook.

  • Q1 revenue grew 31% to $464 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 26% to $79 million. Average sales per shop hit a record $2.2 million.
  • System same-shop sales grew 8.3%, with transactions up 5.1%. That is a seventh straight quarter of more visits, not just higher prices.
  • Dutch Rewards, the loyalty program, reached an all-time-high 74% of transactions. Order-ahead climbed to roughly 15% of the mix.
  • Food is now in 485 shops after a ninth item was added in Q1. Attach rates (the share of drink orders that add food) run in the low teens. The company-operated rollout is set to finish by the end of Q3.
  • 41 shops opened in Q1, including 7 Clutch Coffee Bar conversions now running about 3x their pre-conversion volume. The 2026 plan rose to at least 185 shops. Full-year revenue guidance rose to about $2.1 billion.

Only about 1.5 points of the 8.3% same-shop sales gain came from price. The rest was more visits. Capital spent per new shop fell to $1.3 million, from $1.7 million a year earlier. This means Dutch Bros grows on traffic, not menu price. The gains hold even when customers tighten their budgets. The shops are largely company-operated and cost less to build. So the chain funds its own expansion from cash flow and keeps the full economics of each lane. Conversions like Clutch reopened at about $1.4 million each and run at roughly three times their old volume. They turn a competitor’s real estate into Dutch Bros routine.

Vital Farms VITL

MegatrendConsumers pay more for food they trust. They want food that is humanely raised and transparently sourced, even in basic grocery categories like eggs and butter.

16 million U.S. households now reach for Vital Farms in the supermarket cold case. Q1 was a reset. The price gap to rival premium eggs widened, so first-time trial stalled and margins compressed. But loyal buyers held, and the outdoor-access egg category kept taking share.

  • Q1 net revenue grew 15.4% to $187.2 million. Volume drove all of it: a $34.7 million volume gain against a $9.7 million price/mix decline.
  • The category kept shifting Vital Farms’ way. Outdoor-access eggs (from hens given real outdoor access, the segment Vital Farms leads) rose from 8% of U.S. egg volume in 2023 to 15% in 2026. They are up 32% year-to-date, while ordinary eggs grew just 4%.
  • Existing buyers stayed loyal: units per retained household ran 2% above the prior eight-quarter average. But first-time trial fell from over 55% of buyers to 50%. Price gaps to rival premium eggs widened past what the brand could hold.
  • Distribution keeps widening. Vital Farms secured at least a 50% shelf-presence increase with a top-3 retailer, plus the category-captain role for eggs at another top-3 banner. It expects its best distribution gain since its 2020 IPO: adding 20 to 30 TDPs (total distribution points, a measure of how widely a product is stocked).
  • The company cut 2026 guidance: net sales to $775–$800 million and adjusted EBITDA to $0–$10 million. It absorbs about $32 million to clear an oversupply of eggs. And it is exiting its butter business to concentrate on the premium-egg core.

Underneath the headline reset, the oversupply is a timing mismatch, not a demand failure. Vital Farms buys its farmers’ eggs no matter the sales environment. It had built capacity ahead of demand. That is how a supply-constrained brand stays ready to grow. Then a mild bird-flu season pushed commodity egg prices to multiyear lows. Competing premium and private-label eggs cut their prices in step. The gap to Vital Farms widened past anything the brand had seen. New shoppers stopped crossing that gap while loyal buyers stayed. So committed supply briefly ran ahead of stalled trial, and the excess went to the breaker channel, where eggs are cracked for liquid products and brand earns nothing, at $0.10 a dozen. This means the glut is Vital Farms’ own eggs meeting a temporary air pocket in new-customer growth. The pasture-raised category is not fading: outdoor-access eggs went from 8% of the category in 2023 to 15% today, even with commodity eggs at their cheapest in years. And the fix sits with the company. At one top-10 customer, trimming the premium from about 35% to about 25% (still above rivals) lifted volume 18% in two weeks. Slowing the new Indiana plant and paying farmers to pause production pull near-term supply back into line. Adding real capacity still takes years of hens, pasture, and farm build-out. So once trial reaccelerates, the binding constraint returns to supply.

Celsius Holdings CELH

MegatrendSugar-free functional energy drinks are taking everyday market share from old-line sodas and traditional energy brands. The shift is strongest among women and fitness-oriented consumers.

Celsius now sells three energy-drink brands: Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar. Together they hold ~20% of the U.S. energy-drink market. Q1 pushed portfolio share to 20.9% on record revenue of $783 million.

  • Q1 net revenue reached a record $783 million
  • Alani Nu, acquired April 2025, delivered $368 million in Q1 sales, up ~60% year over year. Tracked scanner data shows it up roughly 100%
  • Portfolio dollar share reached 20.9% in the four weeks ending April 12. One of every five energy drinks sold in the U.S. is now a Celsius-portfolio product
  • Celsius completed the Alani Nu integration. It captured the ~$50 million in cost synergies it had promised a year earlier
  • Adjusted operating profit (adjusted EBITDA) reached $195 million, up ~$125 million year over year. Margin rose to 24.9% from 21.2%

Underneath the headline, growth is shifting between the brands. The original Celsius brand grew about 6% in Q1. A deliberate SKU cleanup (trimming the product list) held that figure down. So did shipping less to stores while they sold down extra inventory. Demand at the register did not weaken. Meanwhile, Alani Nu grew roughly 60%. The company now runs two separate billion-dollar brands aimed at different consumers. This means Celsius no longer leans on a single brand or a single kind of buyer. Its revenue now comes from two large brands at different price points and occasions. A slowdown in one can be offset by the other. As the Alani Nu integration closes and its ~$50 million in cost synergies land, more of each additional dollar of sales falls to profit. Adjusted operating profit rose about $125 million year over year. Scale turns into widening margins that outlast any single quarter’s flavor launch.

Part II  ·  The Pile-On and the Read

Wall Street’s Mistakes

Where Wall Street’s Lack of Understanding Is on Full Display

We studied every analyst question asked during the twenty-one earnings calls. The same observation kept landing: the information that would dissolve each worry is already sitting in plain sight.

It is in what management itself just said on the same call. It is in the basic mechanics of how each business actually works: how its customers pay it, why they stay with it, what it is actually selling them, what makes the business hard to leave.

The consensus is supposed to know these businesses. They are paid to know them. That they are still pressing on surface-level worries that fall apart on basic business literacy is the signature of a community that does not actually know the businesses it covers.

Cluster I  ·  5 Pile-Ons

Building the AI Substrate

NVIDIA

The pile-on

The same two anxieties came back, each in a new form. A quarter ago the fear was whether hyperscalers (giant cloud companies) could keep raising spending. This quarter their capital spending is treated as a given: roughly $1 trillion this year, forecast to grow 90% to 100%. So the worry reversed: now the question is whether NVIDIA can possibly grow faster than that number. The margin-through-Rubin fear did not land, because gross margin held flat at 75%, so the fear moved somewhere sharper: market share in inference (running trained AI models for users). Analyst after analyst pressed the same question. Will custom silicon and merchant accelerators like CPX and LPX take the inference workload as AI shifts from training to inference? It is last quarter's competitive worry, moved from margins to share.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that inference is where the moat finally fails. The theory: as AI shifts from training to cheaper, higher-volume inference (running finished models), custom ASICs (chips built for one buyer) and SRAM-based merchant accelerators like CPX and LPX peel off the one workload NVIDIA can least defend. Wall Street also wants you to worry that a company already selling into a $1 trillion hyperscaler build-out simply cannot keep growing faster than the build-out itself.

Both fears fail on the numbers. Take inference first. NVIDIA is not losing that work. It already runs inference at the lowest cost per token. On the same system, that cost fell 60% in six months. No cheaper chip can catch a price already lowest and still falling this fast. Now the growth ceiling. Data-center revenue grew about 120% year over year excluding China. That beats the 90% to 100% growth in spending by the giant cloud companies. And half of that revenue now comes from buyers outside those clouds: specialist AI clouds, ordinary companies, and governments. The bears are measuring the wrong market.

Advanced Micro Devices

The pile-on

Last quarter’s two worries returned, and a third joined them. The cost worry came back almost word for word: why does operating expense keep running past its own guide, and why does sales-and-marketing spend grow faster than R&D. The launch worry reversed. A quarter ago the fear was that the MI450 would slip. Now it is sampling with lead customers and forecasts run above plan, so the questions turned to whether AMD can build enough of it against tight memory supply and constrained data-center power. The new worry is the server-processor forecast, which doubled to over $120 billion by 2030. The desks fear a number built to excite, and a share that cannot hold as a better-supplied x86 rival and a widening field of ARM designs press in.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that operating costs are finally outrunning the AI ramp, with the spending guide broken and then raised again, quarter after quarter; that a server-CPU forecast which doubled almost overnight is hype rather than a real market; and that AMD cannot actually supply the AI chips it has already booked, while a better-supplied x86 rival and a rising field of ARM designs take back the share.

The numbers answer all three. Costs did rise 42%, to $3.1 billion. But gross margin widened at the same time, so earnings per share grew 43%, faster than the 38% revenue growth, and free cash flow more than tripled to a record $2.6 billion. Spending that produces faster-growing profit is investment, not waste. The doubled server-processor forecast is visible in shipments: that revenue grew more than 50% and is set to grow more than 70% next quarter. Share gains accelerated as the x86 rival added supply. Memory is secured, capacity expanding, and AMD knows which data centers its 2027 chips fill. When demand outruns supply, the seller sets the price.

Taiwan Semiconductor

The pile-on

The analyst block brought back an old worry in a new form. A quarter ago, the fear was that capital spending was racing too far ahead of AI demand. The quarter before that, the fear was that capacity was not being built fast enough. This quarter, demand outran supply once more and the capex budget lifted to the high end of its range, so the fear reversed for a third time. Now the anxiety is that TSMC is building too little, and that its own scarcity will push customers to Samsung, Intel, and the newly announced Terafab. Nearly every questioner circled competition and defection: one LPU program already fabricated at Samsung, whether tight supply forces clients to diversify, how TSMC wins departed business back. It is the same question, asked a third way.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that TSMC’s scarcity is its own undoing. Supply is so tight that customers cannot get all the wafers they want. The fear is that this pushes them to Samsung, to Intel, and to self-build efforts like Terafab. One LPU program already fabricated at Samsung is cast as the first crack in a monopoly that only looks unbreakable.

The bear case inverts cause and effect. A customer diversifies when TSMC runs short of capacity, not when a rival builds a better chip. And going elsewhere gives that customer only two poor options. It can take a rival’s less-advanced chips for some of its volume, which is a downgrade, not a match. Or it can wait years for a rival to build the capacity to make the most advanced chips, capacity that does not exist yet: two to three years to build the factory, and one to two more to run it at full speed. Either way, the customer’s best, highest-value chips cannot leave. Only lower-priority volume can, and only as a stopgap. As for the one program now at Samsung, it sits there for historical reasons, not because the process was better, and its next generation is already in development at TSMC. And TSMC does not need to erase the shortage; it monetizes it. It brings on more capacity every year, three new factories now with more behind them, and sells all of it, because demand runs ahead of supply and stays there. That is years of runway, not a problem to solve. With no second source at the leading edge, that demand has nowhere else to go.

CoreWeave

The pile-on

Nearly every question on the call circled one subject: the margins. Gross margin has slipped from 78% to 68% across five quarters, and first-quarter adjusted operating margin sat at 1%. The net loss widened to $740 million. One desk pressed a simple sum: the company earned roughly $81 million on the bottom line in the first half, yet guides to about $919 million in the second. This is the same worry as a quarter ago, escalated. A quarter ago, analysts asked when the heavy spending would turn into cash. Now, staring at the trough print (the low point in the reported numbers), they ask whether it ever will. It is the same question about cash, pressed harder the moment the numbers actually dipped. The backlog-durability worry that ran alongside it a quarter earlier has quietly gone silent.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that CoreWeave’s profitability is structurally eroding. The gross margin falls every quarter. The operating margin sits barely above zero. The net loss keeps widening. Component and power costs now rise inside contracts that were already signed. And the sharp second-half profit ramp, in this telling, is a hockey stick built on hope rather than anything already in hand.

Every figure is real, but the squeeze is timing, not broken economics. CoreWeave pays rent, power, and depreciation on new capacity for one to two months before it earns a dollar. By month three, the same capacity earns mid-20s contribution margins (revenue minus direct costs). Rapid building means new, not-yet-earning capacity dominates the reported number; as the base grows, the margin recovers on its own. As for rising costs, the contracts kill that worry: power is fixed for the term, and components are bought at signing, so neither cost can rise later. That leaves the second-half ramp, and it is contracted, not hoped for: more than 75% of the $30-billion-plus 2027 run-rate is already signed.

Oracle

The pile-on

The same two anxieties from last quarter came back, both sharpened. A quarter ago the desks doubted whether the buildout could clear Oracle’s cost of capital (the return needed to justify the spending). This quarter that doubt split into two pointed forms. One: do surging memory and component prices quietly erode the margin on long fixed-price contracts? Two: does the flood of new AI-data-center capacity (NeoClouds, even SpaceX building in Spain) collapse pricing and steal renewals? The second worry from last quarter, that AI agents make the enterprise-applications business obsolete, returned with a nickname: the ‘SaaSapocalypse.’ The print keeps getting bigger; the questions keep circling the same two doubts.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that Oracle is now caught in a margin vice. Rising memory and chip prices eat the returns on contracts it has already signed. A stampede of new data-center builders crushes prices and pulls away renewals. Gross margin is already visibly sliding. And the ‘SaaSapocalypse’ finishes the job: AI agents dissolve the high-margin software business underneath it.

Each worry fails. Start with the margin vice: contracts are fixed-price only where costs are locked, and elsewhere prices float. So a memory-price spike lands on the customer, not on Oracle’s margin. The capacity flood misreads the business too. New entrants can build capacity; operating it is the scarce thing. When 35,000 chips came up for renewal across 59 customers, that freed capacity was resold that same quarter at 97.5% usage. As for the ‘SaaSapocalypse,’ it runs cause and effect backwards. Enterprise data is too large and tangled to move, so the AI must come to the data. That data lives in Oracle. Deferred applications revenue (software sold but not yet delivered) grew 16%; current applications revenue grew 10%. Future business is growing faster than the business itself.

Cluster II  ·  6 Pile-Ons

Putting AI to Work Inside the Enterprise

Palantir

The pile-on

The questions rotated, but they circled the same two worries as a quarter ago. On commercial, the ‘show-me’ wall gave way to its mirror image. The growth is now undeniable, so analysts asked a new question: will the AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, all of which now sell enterprise tools) absorb the category as models get cheaper and converge? On defense, the worry moved off scope and onto money. Maven and TITAN are plainly scaling, so the question became: how much of the growth hangs on an election-year budget actually being appropriated? And what would an extended continuing resolution (a stopgap that freezes government spending at old levels) do to it? A quarter ago the desks doubted the demand was real. Now that it is real, they doubt Palantir gets to keep it.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that Palantir is about to be commoditized (turned into an interchangeable product) from both ends. On one end, cheaper and converging foundation models let the AI labs walk straight into the enterprise and hollow out the software layer. On the other, an election-year budget fight or a prolonged continuing resolution (a stopgap that freezes government spending at old levels) stalls the defense ramp that is carrying the numbers.

Both fears misread where the value sits. Cheaper models are fuel, not a threat: when AI gets cheap, companies give it more work, so usage explodes. But a raw model cannot touch a company’s systems. It needs the Ontology, the layer that lets AI act on a company’s own data without errors. That is why the labs’ marquee enterprise wins keep turning out to be built on AIP, Palantir’s platform. On defense, Maven usage doubled in four months and TITAN is in production. Continuing resolutions (stopgap budgets) are the normal state; growth compounded straight through them. Full-year 2026 guidance rose to a $7.7 billion midpoint, the largest raise ever.

Snowflake

The pile-on

Both prior worries came back, though one of them came back reversed. A quarter ago the fear was that one deal flattered the higher guide, and that underlying growth was really lower. This quarter product revenue growth accelerated to 34%, and the full-year outlook went up, from 27% to 31%, not down. With that fear dead, the worry moved to the AI that drove the beat. Will customers throttle their own usage once the token-priced bills land? Does Cortex Code’s lower gross margin quietly dilute the model as it scales? The disintermediation worry is unchanged. Two separate desks pressed again on the same point: will the AI labs and improving rivals eventually rebuild the governed data layer and route around Snowflake?

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the acceleration is a sugar high. The fear runs three ways: customers will see the bill for token-priced AI tools and clamp down on usage, Cortex Code’s structurally lower gross margin drags the whole model down as it scales, and the AI labs and cloud rivals eventually rebuild the governed data layer and leave consumption growth squeezed.

All three worries fold under the quarter’s own numbers. Take the usage fear first: customers do not throttle a tool that replaces labor. One large bank spends three to four times its entire data-systems budget on the people who wire those systems together. A tool that makes that labor ten times more effective is the last line item anyone cuts. The margin fear meets a plain fact. Full-year gross margin guidance held at 75%, despite the Cortex Code uptick. A cheaper AWS bandwidth deal offset the drag. As for the last worry, a rival must first rebuild the security and access controls customers already set up inside Snowflake. No regulated business starts that over from scratch.

Datadog

The pile-on

A quarter ago the desks feared two things. First, that AI agents would absorb the monitoring category. Second, that the heaviest AI customers would eat the margin. This quarter the first fear softened: agents are visibly calling Datadog, with MCP-server tool calls up fourfold in a single quarter. So the worry changed shape. Analysts pressed on whether a record quarter is dangerously concentrated in a couple of frontier AI labs, plus one outsized customer the guide treats with extra caution. They also asked whether hyperscalers (the giant cloud providers) will simply rebuild this in-house. And the old margin fear came back, this time with something to point at. Gross margin slipped to 80.2% from 81.4% as telemetry volumes (the flow of data software sends about itself) went parabolic, and the questions turned to whether the flood of AI data quietly breaks the cost structure.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that this record is a concentration trap. A couple of frontier AI labs and one outsized customer carry the acceleration, and hyperscalers, of all buyers, could rebuild this in-house. Meanwhile the torrent of telemetry from those same workloads bends the cost structure the wrong way. Gross margin already slipped sequentially just as volumes went parabolic.

Both premises misread the quarter. Start with concentration: the record was broad-based, not top-heavy. Remove the one customer that added the most Q1 revenue, and Q1 was still a record for new recurring revenue. The build-it-yourself fear is answered by who buys. The hyperscalers have the engineers and money to build this, yet they came to Datadog and replaced what they had built, because monitoring is not their core job. On margin, the bears are reading the wrong baseline: gross margin sat at 80.3% a year ago, essentially where it sits now. Volume went parabolic over that year and the margin held. Datadog charges on usage, so each new byte of telemetry brings its own revenue.

Figma

The pile-on

Two desks returned to the competition worry, now with names attached. Since the last call, a hyperscaler shipped a Make-like product, and a frontier lab shipped its own design tool. Two other desks pressed the margin worry from a fresh angle. Gross margin slipped as AI usage climbed, and both asked where the floor sits and whether it pierces 80%. It is the same pair of worries as a quarter ago: AI absorbs design, and margin gives way. But the worries have sharpened. Last quarter the fear was an abstract AI-native rival and a projected step-down in operating margin. This quarter it is named competitors already shipping and gross margin visibly compressing on the page.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the AI-native competition has finally arrived in the flesh. A hyperscaler and a frontier lab now ship their own design tools. At the same time, the cost of running all that AI eats gross margin from the top, pushing an 82% number below 80%. And it drags the full-year operating margin down to single digits, as inference bills (the cost of running AI models) outrun what customers will pay.

Both worries fail against this quarter’s own facts. Start with the competition: the named hyperscaler builds on Figma, not against it. Google runs Gemini’s design work on the platform, its single source of truth, because the fidelity that work needs is “not possible with vibe coding.” As for the margin, the dip is a timing story. AI usage grew all quarter while the meter was off; credit billing only switched on March 18. From that date, the same usage converts to revenue instead of pure cost. And demand held: 75% of over-limit users kept consuming credits into April. The clearest tell: full-year operating income was raised by $25 million, not cut.

Salesforce

The pile-on

The analyst pile-on landed on one dominant worry: the gap between Agentforce’s dazzling usage metrics and the ordinary bookings underneath them. The KPIs are exploding: tokens are up 152% quarter over quarter, and agentic work units are up 111%. Yet cRPO (contracted revenue not yet delivered) came in merely in line with guidance, not ahead, and Tableau and Commerce are visibly dragging. This is not a new complaint; the same ‘show us the revenue’ worry has now come back three quarters in a row. Each time, the print landed on plan rather than beating it, and each time the worry returned unchanged. A related question circled Headless. By opening its platform to outside agents, is Salesforce letting value be pulled out of its own applications?

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the Agentforce usage story is a vanity metric. That 28.6 trillion tokens and 3.8 billion completed tasks run far ahead of any revenue they will ever produce. That the promised second-half reacceleration is a hope, not a booking. And that opening the platform through Headless lets customers and the AI labs pull value out of Salesforce’s apps and route around them.

The money already follows the usage. The ten heaviest agent users increased their total Salesforce spend 1.5x in the past year. Half of Agentforce and Data 360 sales came from existing customers buying more. The top ten deals carried roughly $800 million of contract value, 2.5 times the prior year. The soft spots, Tableau and Commerce, are two aging products. The core (Sales, Service, and Slack) brings in more than 60% of new sales and is speeding up. Headless does not let value leak out; it pulls work in. Anthropic’s Sales Cloud usage rose fivefold through Headless, and Agentforce customers in production grew 50% in the quarter.

HubSpot

The pile-on

The sell-side led with one worry from nearly every seat: that HubSpot broke its own growth engine in April. The company pulled its entire sales force out of the field to retrain, extended free trials, and swapped seat pricing for pay-per-outcome. The result was a “slow start” to Q2. Q1 net new ARR growth slipped below revenue growth for the first time in six quarters. This is the same durability worry the desks have pressed for six to eight quarters. Net new ARR running above revenue was the metric they tracked as proof the story held. Now the worry is sharper, because for the first time the company handed them a real deceleration to point at.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that HubSpot stalled its own growth engine. It pulled the sales team out of the field to retrain on new agents, and stretched sales cycles with 28-day trials. It traded reliable seat revenue for unproven pay-per-outcome pricing. The fear: net new ARR broke just as the core decelerates. And the promised second-half recovery rests on three weeks of data.

The worry mistakes a planned investment window for decay. The slow start has one cause: in April the whole sales team came off the field for one month to train on the new agents. That cut selling capacity, not demand. Usage proves it. Total credits consumed grew 67% in the quarter. One customer ran a single agent from 100,000 to 300,000 credits a month. And the guide already absorbs the slow start. The full-year growth guide, at constant currency (ignoring exchange-rate swings), rose 40 basis points to 16.6%. Hitting it does not require net new ARR (new recurring revenue added) to reaccelerate in the back half.

Cluster III  ·  4 Pile-Ons

Rebuilding Discovery, Decision, and Purchase

Shopify

The pile-on

Two analysts pressed the same disintermediation worry (the fear that others cut Shopify out of the sale) that ran the prior two quarters, now sharpened. A quarter ago the question was whether AI interfaces bypass Shopify’s checkout, and whether agentic commerce is even a real growth lane. This quarter one analyst asked whether integrations with ChatGPT and Claude push Shopify ‘back from the merchant’s UX.’ Another asked whether the monetization economics change as checkout surfaces multiply across ChatGPT, Stripe and Meta. The growth-lane half of the worry has quietly resolved: orders from AI searches are up nearly 13x. So the desks kept the surviving half and pressed it harder. The question is no longer whether agents transact. It is who keeps the take rate (the fee earned on each sale) when they do.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the places to check out are multiplying: a chat window, a social feed, an agent acting on its own. In that story, the checkout moment leaks out to whoever owns the surface. Shopify is left running the plumbing underneath, for economics that thin out with every new front door.

The premise mistakes the surface for the transaction. When ChatGPT opens checkout, the page inside the chat is the Shopify storefront itself. The economics match a purchase on the merchant’s own store: new surface, same take rate. The surface owners are not routing around Shopify; they are joining it. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce and Stripe joined UCP, the open checkout standard Shopify co-developed with Google. The companies that could bypass the checkout now build on Shopify’s rails. Shopify Payments processed $67 billion in Q1, up 41%, at 67% penetration (share of sales it processes). As more of each sale flows through Payments, Shopify earns on more of it. The take rate is rising, not leaking.

Pinterest

The pile-on

The engagement-versus-revenue gap led the Q4 and Q3 calls. It led this one too, now pressed from two sides. Analysts returned to the old question: why does record engagement still outrun ad dollars, and when does the gap finally close? A newer one opened alongside it: do AI chatbots intercept the shopping intent before Pinterest can charge for it? Others kept circling the still-unfinished sales rebuild. A quarter ago the fear was that the gap was structural. Now the fear is that a chatbot closes it for someone else. Same gap, sharper fear.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the engagement-versus-revenue gap will be settled the wrong way. Even if Pinterest could eventually monetize its own scale, AI chatbots would capture the commercial intent first. Pinterest would keep the searches while someone else keeps the sale. And a half-built sales organization is still being rewired mid-flight.

The numbers on this call answer both fears. The chatbot fear first. Half of Pinterest’s more than 80 billion monthly searches carry commercial intent; ChatGPT’s own data puts its commercial prompts at 2%. These are different tools for different jobs, and users agree: 10 straight quarters of double-digit user growth happened during the chatbot boom, not before it. The structural fear next. Revenue grew 18% to $1.0 billion, above the high end of guidance. Pinterest now sends advertisers five times the clicks it did three years ago, while revenue rose far less. That gap is unpaid demand the platform already creates; new measurement tools are how it starts collecting.

AppLovin

The pile-on

This quarter the consumer platform’s numbers landed, and the growth was undeniable. The questions now are three. Does the fast-growing consumer demand crowd out the gaming cash engine inside the single shared auction? Is the company overreaching by stacking lead generation, connected TV, and a possible social app on top of a June public launch? Do rising GPU (AI chip) and creative-compute costs finally cap the margin? It is the same business with the fear turned around: a quarter earlier it was too small to believe, and now it is too big not to threaten the core.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that AppLovin’s two engines now fight each other. In this story, every higher-value e-commerce bid in the single auction pushes a game advertiser out, so the consumer boom quietly cannibalizes (eats into) the business that pays the bills. Wall Street also wants you to worry about focus. The company opens to the public while chasing lead generation, connected TV, third-party creative compute, and even a social network. In this telling, it is spread thin enough that its record margin has nowhere to go but down.

Start with the first worry: the auction is one machine, not two rivals. Gaming built the record quarter: revenue rose 59%, and the large majority still came from gaming; consumer grew on top. No cannibalization has appeared. Consumer ads fill impressions the platform used to waste showing one game after another, and every new e-commerce advertiser adds data that sharpens the gaming models too. As for the margin fear, the actual result points the other way. Adjusted EBITDA margin hit a new high of 85%, and 86% of each new revenue dollar dropped through as profit.

The Trade Desk

The pile-on

Four analysts pressed the same point from four angles. The Q2 guide of at least $750 million implies below-industry growth. So where does re-acceleration come from, and how much of it is in Trade Desk’s control? This is last quarter’s worry escalated. A quarter ago the question was whether growth would re-accelerate off weak packaged goods and auto. Now the forward guide itself carries the deceleration. The desks stacked on two fresh anxieties: a public contract dispute with the agency Publicis, and the Chief Strategy Officer leaving for OpenAI.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the deceleration analysts feared last quarter has now hardened into the forward guide. In this telling, a below-industry Q2 number, a public falling-out with a major agency, and a senior executive walking out to an AI lab are three faces of one story: a slowing, cyclically-exposed business shedding its people and its partners just as agentic AI threatens to route around the independent buy-side entirely.

The soft quarter is real, but the drag sits in two categories: packaged goods and auto, both squeezed by tariffs. Those comparisons get easier later this year. Underneath, the real asset compounded: March was the biggest month on record for multi-year advertiser commitments. Advertisers signed 45 of them; the count rose 55% year over year, and new deal spend rose 40%. Companies do not sign multi-year deals with a platform they plan to leave. As for the second worry, the Publicis dispute is a live negotiation, not a lost account; the two have done billions of dollars of business together since 2018. And the departing strategist stays on the board and remains a shareholder.

Cluster IV  ·  3 Pile-Ons

Modernizing the Activities of Everyday Life

Duolingo

The pile-on

The same two worries from last quarter came back, and this time the desks had numbers to point at. A quarter ago, the growth fear ran on no new data. Now analysts leaned on the deceleration: the monthly-user top of funnel (the flow of new people trying the app) went flat this quarter, and Q2 bookings guidance is only about 6%. The fear finally had a soft print to grab. The second worry mutated rather than faded. Last quarter, the fear was that dropping the AI video-call feature into the cheaper Super tier would crush pricing. This quarter, the same fear came back aimed at margins. The desks pressed why gross margin guidance drops to 69% while AI loads deeper into the product, and whether Super now cannibalizes the top Max tier.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that Duolingo’s growth is finally cracking, with a flat top of funnel and 6% Q2 bookings as the first fault lines. It also wants you to worry that the AI Duolingo pushes deeper into the product is a margin sinkhole: expensive to serve, and now handed to cheaper subscribers who will never pay enough to cover it.

Both worries assume Duolingo lost control of its own machine. It did not. The soft Q2 bookings number reflects a strong year-ago quarter, not weak demand. A year ago that quarter had a price rise, an Energy launch, and strong ads. Growth reaccelerates in the second half. Underneath, daily active users grew 21%, and full-year daily-user growth still tracks around 20%. As for the margin slide to 69%, that is a choice, not a leak. AI features cost money to run, and Duolingo is deliberately putting far more of them in front of learners. That added cost is what pulls gross margin to about 69%. It buys a better product, not runaway costs.

DoorDash

The pile-on

Two of last quarter’s worries came back, and one partly came true. The spending question returned intact. Analysts pressed how deep and how long the platform investment runs. The question is now sharper: does running three tech stacks in parallel quietly burden the P&L? The disruption question returned with the villain swapped. A quarter ago, the fear was the largest online retailer taking the new non-restaurant categories. This quarter, the desks asked whether personal AI agents wedge themselves between the marketplace and the customer. That would leave DoorDash a commodity logistics layer (a plain delivery service anyone can hire). And the soft patch analysts had warned about showed up. Q1 order growth decelerated, and a new gas-rewards program added cost.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the replatforming bill is finally landing. Three parallel tech stacks and a fresh $50 million-a-quarter gas-rewards cost drag on a quarter where orders already slowed. Wall Street also wants you to worry that AI agents will step between DoorDash and its own customers. That would reduce a decade of network-building to a fulfillment API (a plain order-routing pipe) that someone else’s assistant calls.

Both worries dissolve: the first on the numbers, the second on history. The Q1 slowdown came from winter storms, not demand. Monthly active users hit an all-time high; order frequency grew. The costs are bounded, too: the triple-stack spend (three systems running at once) is temporary, and most of it clears within 2026. Full-year profit still lands slightly above 2025, even before adding Deliveroo. As for the agent worry, it misreads history. For about eight years, Google owned the doorway to food ordering, yet kept only a fraction of it. Customers moved their shopping to DoorDash anyway. Agents are one more doorway. They cannot copy DoorDash’s catalog of the physical world: where every banana sits, how ripe every avocado is.

Toast

The pile-on

The analyst pile-on landed on two worries. One desk pressed the DoorDash threat. DoorDash’s own point-of-sale (checkout and order system) is now live in San Francisco, Phoenix, and New York; a partner is turning into a peer. The desk asked how Toast Local competes. Another desk pressed hardware cost, noting the roughly 150-basis-point drag on 2026 EBITDA margin and asking how much larger it grows in 2027. A quarter ago, these same desks feared AI would let a nameless new entrant build restaurant software cheaply. They also feared the 2026 investment plan was the start of margin compression. Now the feared entrant has a name, and the feared margin hit has a number. The worries got sharper; the habit of worrying did not change.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that DoorDash turns from Toast’s partner into the competitor that finally breaks its 20-plus-percent share, with delivery reach plus a bundled point-of-sale now live in three U.S. cities. And that the hardware Toast puts on every new counter is a widening margin wound: a drag this year, and a larger one in 2027 that never stops growing.

DoorDash sells demand; Toast runs the restaurant: payments, payroll, kitchen screens, the terminal in the server’s hand. DoorDash’s checkout takes orders; it cannot run payroll or the kitchen, so it stays one of hundreds of Toast partners. Restaurants keep choosing Toast: 7,000 net new locations this quarter, 171,000 live. The second worry, the hardware drag, is real. It comes from tariffs and a chip stockpile so no customer waits for a terminal. That is a timing cost, not a leak. Underneath it, recurring gross profit grew 27% and SaaS gross margin crossed 80%. A terminal is not a wound; it buys a location that pays Toast for years.

Cluster V  ·  3 Pile-Ons

The Reset at the Cooler Door and the Drive-Thru Lane

Dutch Bros

The pile-on

Three separate analysts came back to the competition worry, and a fourth opened a new front. A quarter ago the worry was general: whether bigger chains erode traffic. This quarter it narrowed to a single battleground. The question is whether the two largest restaurant chains pushing into energy, and Starbucks’ just-launched energy drink specifically, are finally denting the trend. A fresh macro (economy-wide) worry rode alongside it: a spike in gas prices makes a drive-thru beverage the first discretionary cut. The competitive fear did not fade over the quarter. It sharpened onto energy and picked up a macro partner.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the energy category (the fastest-growing part of the menu and the part Dutch Bros leaned into hardest) is exactly where a scaled competitor finally takes the customer. It also wants you to worry that a discretionary drive-thru drink is the first thing a household cuts when gas costs more.

Both worries fail the quarter’s own test. Starbucks launched its energy drink; the trend did not move. Dutch Bros posted 8.3% same-shop sales growth, with transactions up 5.1%: a seventh straight quarter of more visits, not higher prices. Texas is the cleanest proof. Its shops face every competitor at once, and it grew almost 20%. The highest-volume shops sit within a half mile of legacy chains, so whatever a rival next door is doing, it is not taking the visit. As for the gas worry: it treats the daily visit as loose spending, the first thing a tight budget cuts. But a coffee run is a caffeine habit, not an impulse. Caffeine holds up far better than other drinks when money is tight, so a few cents more at the pump does not end the daily cup.

Vital Farms

The pile-on

A quarter ago the pile-on split two ways: was premium-egg demand decelerating, and was margin compression structural? This quarter the margin half partly came true. Gross margin fell to 28.3% from 38.5%, adjusted EBITDA slid to 2.7% of sales, and guidance for 2026 was cut. So the worry returned, louder this time. Analyst after analyst asked whether these distressed prices are the ‘new normal’ and whether the long-term double-digit margin target still holds. The sharper, newer turn: does the cash burn now force a draw on the revolver (a standing credit line the company can tap)? The demand half resurfaced too, recast as a question of which is really cracking, loyal buy rate or first-time trial.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the distressed pricing of this quarter is the new permanent floor. On that view, the drop from a 38.5% to a 28.3% gross margin marks a broken model, not a point in a cycle. And a company now burning cash and reaching for its revolver is about to dilute or distress its way through the downturn.

Both premises misread the quarter. Most of the damage sits on one line: roughly $32 million to clear Vital Farms’ own surplus eggs. It buys every egg its farmers produce, so the extra went to the breaker market, where eggs are cracked for liquid products and brand earns nothing, at as little as $0.10 a dozen. That cost does not recur. Nor did customers leave: retained households bought 2% more units than their prior eight-quarter average. At one top-10 customer, the price gap to rival premium eggs narrowed from about 35% to about 25%, and volume rose 18% in two weeks. That is a pricing choice, not lost demand. As for the cash worry, it is thin. Capital spending falls by about $75 million, and the company still bought back $20 million of its own stock this quarter.

Celsius Holdings

The pile-on

The desks split the worry in two, and both halves trace straight back to last quarter. The channel-fill question returned almost verbatim: a quarter ago, the fear was that Q4 borrowed sales from the start of the year. This quarter, analysts pressed whether Alani Nu’s ~60% reported growth was really a shipment build as the brand moved deeper into the PepsiCo system. The second worry is last quarter’s fear turned around. A quarter ago, analysts feared the acceleration was artificially hot. Now, with the original CELSIUS brand growing only ~6%, the desks pressed the opposite fear: the core is going cold, cannibalized by its own sister brand.

The read

Wall Street wants you to worry that the original CELSIUS brand is quietly stalling, slowing to single-digit growth as Alani Nu eats its customers. It also wants you to worry that Alani’s headline number is a one-time channel build (a burst of shipments to stock new shelves) that flatters a portfolio already running out of room.

Both worries fail against the quarter’s own numbers. Start with Alani Nu. Scanner data (cans shoppers actually bought) grew ~85% to 100%, well ahead of the ~60% in reported revenue. When purchases outrun shipments, shelves are emptying, not filling. Now the core brand. Retailers expanded CELSIUS shelf space about 17% and added cooler placements. A store does not give more space to a brand its shoppers are leaving. The reported ~6% counts cans shipped, not cans sold; Celsius shipped fewer than shoppers bought, drawing down store inventory. And the two brands sell to different buyers; add them together and the portfolio’s dollar share still climbed to 20.9%.